Since December is traditionally the month of balance sheets, let us try to formulate one of our own, of a geo-political nature, taking the previous 11 editions of «The Voice of Maria Dolens» as our reference since they span the whole of 2022.

Predictably, particular attention has been focused on the dramatic Russian/Ukrainian conflict, examined in its main, multifaceted components - from the economic to the humanitarian, from the multilateral to the military - in three leading articles. As a first observation, in re-reading them we notice (but this is true almost unanimously for other and far more authoritative commentators) the absence of a prediction, even if only approximate, of the duration of the conflict. It is almost as if – by meeting the question with silence - its conclusion might come quicker. Almost 10 months after President Putin's disastrous, criminal decision to attack the neighbouring country for no concrete reason, it must unfortunately be recognized that the time for settling the crisis is stretching painfully while there is the possibility of risks that not even the belligerent forces are able to control (as demonstrated by the recent case of the missile, of uncertain origin, which misguidedly crossed the boundary into Poland). The situation risks turning into a sort of unsolvable "Rubrik's cube" except for the commitment (and, again, not without some setbacks) of the so-called "Wheat Agreement".

The agreement was favoured, as embarrassing as it is to recognize this fact, not by the institutional mediator, i.e., the United Nations, but by a figure with dubious democratic credentials and that is the Turkish president Erdogan. On the one hand, the Kremlin has in fact proceeded with the annexation of four "separatist" Ukrainian territories; on the other, the troops of Kiev have been engaged for several weeks now, successfully as in the case of the reconquest of Kherson, in a counter-offensive aimed without any ambiguity at the re-establishment of the "pre-24 February" borders. This circumstance has led to the threat of the use of tactical nuclear weapons on several occasions by senior Russian officials starting from the assimilation - of course, devoid of any international legitimacy - of the "neo-Russian" areas to the territory of the Federation.

Considering this background, President Putin’s permanence in power is identified by the majority of political analysts as "incompatible" with any hypothesis of cessation of hostilities or opening of a negotiating table. When he announced last spring, in the wake of an enthusiasm for the first Russian successes on the ground which later proved to be completely unfounded, that the fighting would be concluded "by 9 May" (a "sacred" date in Russia, as it is associated with the victory of 1945 on Nazi Germany) the joke that he intentionally or unintentionally omitted to specify the year seems to take on a tragic truthfulness.

Almost 10 months after the invasion of Ukraine, the time for settling the crisis is stretching painfully

Moving on to other topics, September saw us examine a moment of serious difficulty in Sino-American relations, as a consequence of the visit to Taiwan which was stubbornly prepared and implemented even against the advice of the White House, by the then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi. If the all-out military provocations concocted by Beijing as a sign of protest have worn out over time, the "passage" dedicated by President Xi Jinping to the "rebel province" in the opening speech at the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party did certainly not go unnoticed. Members of the party met last October to decree an unprecedented, third term in his favour (only as a formality, since everything had already been written in substance). In fact, he presented very harsh affirmations («reunification will be obtained by all available means»), tending to leave no doubts on the final objective of the People’s Republic of China to annex the island, considered (wrongly in this case) as an integral component of the national territory. Such affirmations, moreover, do not seem to know any kind of "brake" internally, especially if we consider the fact that the XX Congress was skilfully exploited by Xi to eliminate any possible form of opposition, replacing all the high offices of the state, except his own of course, with loyalists. The forced removal from the meeting room in front of the media and world public opinion of former President Hu Jintao represented the unequivocal signal of a power devoid not only of moral inhibitions but, by now, also of operational limits or counterweights.

On the opposite side we have the United States where the recent mid-term elections have given new vigour to the administration in office which has managed to maintain the vital control of the Senate, reducing the losses, however obvious, in the lower house. The first bilateral meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping, which took place in Bali on the sidelines of the G20 meeting, had the merit of establishing a dialogue at the highest level that has been absent for too long. However, in terms of content it may be considered little more than a "kick off". One of the few aspects of convergence in the positions of Beijing and Washington is represented by the shared, explicit and firm condemnation of a possible "atomic hazard" by Moscow, a hypothesis defined in no uncertain terms as "irresponsible" by Xi Jinping and, in similar terms, also from the Indian Modi. On closer inspection, it is a convergence so important as to make it possible to reopen a discussion on decidedly more problematic aspects, such as the well-known economic disputes, the very distant existing visions on democracy, human rights, environmental issues or the fight against the pandemic and food supply, without evoking opposing global geo-strategic plans, especially on the future of the Asian continent where Beijing makes no secret of pursuing a status of unchallenged hegemony.

Instead, in March, we analysed the political situation in Libya, a country of enormous importance in relation to the stability of the Mediterranean basin and the continuity of our energy supplies. Some time later, it must be recognized that we are dealing with one of the many geo-political dossiers that the Russian aggression against Ukraine has relegated to a few newspaper headlines and a few vague television reports. The country continues to be deeply divided between the government in Tripoli which is recognized by the UN, and the eastern part, the domain of the strong man of Benghazi, General Haftar, who has certainly not given up on the plan to unite the country under his leadership. Of the "free elections", which should have taken place at the end of 2021 under the supervision of the international community, no one - due to the absence of any prospect of peace and perhaps also out of modesty - now dares to make even the slightest mention.

Beijing makes no secret of pursuing a status of unchallenged hegemony over the Asian continent.

During the year we also focused on two important political personalities, one in the process of retiring (German Chancellor Merkel), the other reconfirmed in office (French President Macron). Even if the political relations between Berlin and Paris have probably known better times the two capitals have always constituted the backbone of the European construction, the further strengthening of which passes, inescapably, from their shared desire to " modernize” the Treaties, accentuating the community component to the detriment of the intergovernmental one (in practice, a more extensive application of decisions by majority rather than unanimity). Such an important objective should be pursued with convinced determination, also by the third largest member country of the EU, Italy, independently - it should be specified - from the governmental structure in place.

Finally, the topics addressed by the most recent editorials remain, Brazil and Iran.

With regard to the first, the narrow election win of Luís Inácio da Silva known as Lula will inevitably revive social support policies in favour of the less well-off classes, neglected during Jair Bolsonaro's mandate. It might also slow down, if not actually completely block, the deforestation measures in the Amazon widely implemented by the predecessor. To avoid accentuating the already existing phenomenon of internal radicalisation, the new president will have to take care not to antagonize the industrial and financial sectors, since the majority are close to the positions of the defeated candidate, and should resort to the centrist forces present in his coalition to gain support in a Parliament in which he does not hold the majority. In the international field, Brazil is obviously expected to assume leadership of the large group of South American states with socialist traction (Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia and others), which find the regional organization of reference in the so-called "Mercosur". This increased assertiveness - which the new Brazilian government is also likely to enforce in different multilateral spheres, such as the G20 and BRICS - could lead to some "friction" with the United States, in particular, if the Republican candidate emerges victorious from the polls of the US presidential election at the end of 2024, (regardless of whether Donald Trump is called)

In Brazil, Lula's election to the presidency will revive social support policies

Lastly, as far as Iran is concerned, despite brutal repression measures that have already cost the demonstrators hundreds of victims and thousands of imprisonments (with the Italian travel blogger Simona Piperno in the meantime having returned to her homeland), the street demonstrations organized by the heroic female component of the country under the slogan "Woman, Life and Freedom" have continued without interruption since mid-September, involving not only the big cities but also the smaller towns, where the control of the pasdaran is easier and, consequently, more rigorous. The by now evident incapacity of the regime to block the new demonstrations despite the deployment of massive police forces clearly shows how the theocratic system of President Raisi and Ayatollah Khamenei is facing a potentially explosive situation, likely with time to put its very survival in danger.

In Iran, anti-government demonstrations have continued unabated since mid-September despite brutal repression measures

If, wholly or only in part, Iran was able to free itself from the perverse and suffocating grip that prevents the country's great potential from emerging, forcing it into absurd international isolation, the outgoing 2022 would redeem a budget which, over the span of the last 12 months, has turned out to be extremely worrying overall, and would deliver the prospect of at least one decidedly positive geopolitical development to the incoming 2023.

A Peaceful Christmas and a Happy New Year to all our readers!

 

Reggente Marco Marsilli, Foundation President

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