IN IRAN A CRISIS BETWEEN WAR AND INTERNAL PROTESTS
The military attack conducted in recent weeks by the United States and Israel against targets on Iranian soil has brought the country back to the centre of the international stage and opened a new phase of tension in the Middle East. The raids targeted military infrastructure and installations considered strategic to Iran’s defence system, with the stated goal of degrading Tehran’s operational capabilities and limiting its nuclear programme. As is often the case in such situations, civilians paid a tragic toll in blood
The first wave of bombing was followed by the Iranian response. Tehran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at Israeli targets and U.S. military infrastructure in the region, while tense episodes and further attacks were also reported in other Middle Eastern countries. At the moment, the conflict does not appear to be confined to Iranian territory alone: In fact, a range of military actions and indirect attacks involves a network of regional actors and armed groups shaped by the area’s geopolitical dynamics.
One of the most sensitive points remains the Strait of Hormuz, a sea passage through which a significant share of the world's oil transits. Iranian authorities are imposing severe restrictions on shipping traffic in the area, with immediate repercussions for energy markets and for governments dependent on crude oil imports.
The military escalation has also reinforced the climate of uncertainty that already characterised the internal Iranian situation. In recent months, the country had been plagued by protests mainly related to economic hardship and deteriorating social conditions. High inflation and the consequences of international sanctions had fuelled demonstrations in several cities, involving traders, students and middle-class sectors. The protests had been addressed by the authorities with drastic security measures and interventions aimed at stabilising the economy, but widespread discontent remained one of the most prominent elements of the domestic picture. The military attack and the subsequent phase of international tension have shifted the focus to the external dimension of the crisis, pushing into the background the economic and social fragilities that had fuelled the protests.
It was precisely this combination of domestic and international factors that was highlighted in the February issue of “la Voce” by the President of the Foundation, Ambassador Marco Marsilli, who noted that the Iranian situation appeared “like a powder keg on the verge of explosion,” marked by clashes between protesters and security forces engaged in suppressing the demonstrations. Should outside actors intervene in the internal confrontation, he added, ‘we would face an escalation that would be difficult to control.
The developments seen in recent weeks appear to be moving precisely in this direction. The military attack and subsequent responses have expanded the scope of the crisis, turning an already complex situation into a geopolitical flashpoint of global significance.
In the short term, observers point to several possible scenarios. The first concerns the continuation of limited military operations, with attacks and counterattacks that would remain confined to certain strategic targets. In contrast, a second scenario envisages a gradual expansion of the conflict through the involvement of other regional actors, with potentially far-reaching consequences for global security.
Finally, the economic dimension remains a parallel concern to the military one. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz or prolonged regional instability could affect energy markets and international trade balances even more heavily in the months ahead. In this context, the situation in Iran continues to be one of the most sensitive points in the global scenario, where domestic dynamics and geopolitical tensions are becoming increasingly intertwined.
