In our previous analysis of Japan, (see issue 35 of La Voce), we highlighted how this Asian nation had regained a significant position on the international stage after a period of partial obscurity. The successful outcome of the G7 Summit, organised in the city-martyr of Hiroshim and extended beyond its core members to include leading representatives from the Indo-Asian region; the diplomatic activism of the then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, a tireless visitor to capitals of the five continents;the strong growth rate of the domestic economy, which had begun to rival that of the United States and China in percentage terms, already represented key elements of a decidedly encouraging overall picture.
More than two years on, in this new assessment of the "Land of the Rising Sun" we are about to make, these indicators appear confirmed and, seem likely to strengthen further in the future. A considerable amount of the credit for this positive trend should go to the new Premier, Sanae Takaichi. Sworn into office only in October 2025, the 65-year-old Prime Minister, born and raised in Nara, has, within a matter of months, secured exceptionally high levels of support for both herself and her party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a situation unprecedented since the post-war period.

Suffice it to note that in the snap elections for the House of Representatives held last February, the LDP increased its seats from 195 to 316, thereby achieving a two-thirds majority. This allows it to override any opposition that might arise from the House of Councillors (the equivalent of the Italian Senate), which (at least for now), remains outside the majority’s control.
A variety of factors underpin Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s popularity—an appeal which, as election results suggest, is broadly and consistently distributed across contemporary Japan, cutting across both age groups and geographical backgrounds. Above all, she is the first woman ever to reach the top of government, after distinguished service leading major ministries such as the Economy and the Interior. Then there is her modest background—both parents were clerks—in a Japanese political system still strongly shaped by powerful family dynasties. Unsurprisingly, her main challenger in the LDP primaries was the son of a political peer, the former Premier Junichiro Koizumi. Finally, there is the widespread perception of her as a figure with a strong progressive streak—evident in her decision, reversing convention, to have her spouse adopt her surname—and at the same time a nonconformist, as reflected in her stated passion for high-powered motorcycles and for playing the drums.

Yet her profile is more complex than it might first appear. These modern traits are tempered by more traditional positions, including her openly declared affinity with the political creed of her mentor, former Premier Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in 2022. Abe’s political vision, marked by a clear conservative and nationalist imprint and systematised in the well-known framework of “Abenomics”, had helped establish a constructive relationship with Donald Trump during his first presidency.

As many commentators have observed, if Mrs Takaichi is to turn her current “honeymoon” with the Japanese electorate into a stable and enduring political union, she will need to swiftly address and successfully resolve a number of sensitive, long-standing issues.

In the international arena, this will mean keeping relations with China on a stable footing and avoiding potentially dangerous escalations. These traditionally complex ties were already strained shortly after her appointment, following her statement that “an armed invasion of Taiwan would pose a serious security problem for Tokyo.” While fully understandable from a Japanese perspective, the remark was received very negatively in Beijing, where Xi Jinping and his circle interpreted it as interference in internal affairs and responded immediately with economic countermeasures. In the same region, relations between Japan and South Korea will also require careful management. Neither shared security challenges nor the fact that both countries are liberal democracies with strong economic and cultural ties have so far been sufficient to overcome the heavy historical legacy of the Second World War, including the atrocities (including forced labour and sexual slavery) linked to Japan’s military expansion.
The development of a broad-based understanding with Tokyo’s principal ally, the United States therefore appears to be equally essential. If the good relations at the time between Shinzo Abe and the "first" Trump can serve as a role model, it remains to be seen how general political strategies and interpersonal "chemistry" will react in the case of Premier Takaichi and the decidedly less reliable and reassuring "updated version" of the Washington tycoon.
At their first meeting, scheduled at the White House in March, the new Premier is expected to confirm that Japan has raised its defence spending to 2 per cent of the GDP, a matter of particular importance to her MAGA-minded counterpart, especially against the backdrop of a projected US military disengagement from both Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

This is, however, also a highly sensitive issue domestically, given the presence in the 1947 Constitution —ironically imposed by the American occupation authorities—of Article 9, which renounces war in the name of “unarmed pacifism”.

In light of changing geopolitical conditions and clear parliamentary arithmetic, Premier Takaichi is likely to seek ways of reconciling this principle with the increasingly felt need, also among public opinion, to strengthen Japan’s defence capabilities.

These international considerations, on which we have, as usual,dwelt at length, leave limited room for equally important domestic issues.
We will therefore limit ourselves to evoking two, which we believe are central. The first concerns the worrying ageing of the resident population (plummeting birth rate; shrinking population and workforce, etc.) which is no longer addressable, in not only social but also economic terms, without the use of more liberal immigration policies.

While restrictive approaches to immigration are common not only in Tokyo but across much of Asia, in Japan the urgency of a shift in direction is particularly acute and no longer deferrable.

The second relates to the identification of measures capable of sustaining economic growth, as well as increasing wages and purchasing power. By way of context, Japan remains the world’s fourth-largest developed economy, but the prospect of being overtaken by India, which is close behind, appears increasingly likely in the near future.
In this area, one of the first measures announced, concerning broad tax cuts, is a classic double-edged sword: undoubtedly welcome to beneficiaries, yet not without negative repercussions for an already very high level of public debt.
In conclusion, the influential British weekly "The Economist" recently described Sanae Takaichi as the "most powerful woman on the planet," coupling this demanding assessment with a mention of the “courage” she will need to drastically transform her country from within.
This will be no mean feat, and one in which - we sincerely hope given Japan’s crucial role in ensuring stability in a high-risk region, as illustrated by the uncertain future of Taiwan— a jam session on her beloved drum kit or an informal ride on a Kawasaki motorcycle (her favourite brand) might provide moments of relaxation and inspiration.

Reggente Marco Marsilli, Foundation President

Japanese Premier Sanae Takaichi