Our political analysis this month focuses on an Asian country, Japan, which for some time has found a more than legitimate central position in the international context, after a rather prolonged period of "fog".
The latest confirmation of this "rebirth" comes from the very recent G7 Summit, held under the Japanese Presidency in the martyr-city of Hiroshima and hailed a huge success by the unanimous opinion of the participants. First of all, for the positions of firm condemnation of the Russian Federation and unconditional support for President Zelensky and the Ukrainian government that emerged at the conclusion of the summit. Secondly, due to Prime Minister Kishida's decision to extend an invitation, not only to members by right but also to qualified representatives of the Indo-Asian area, such as the presidents of Vietnam, South Korea and Australia and the current presidents of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Pacific Islands Forum.
From this marked policy of involvement what clearly emerges is the willingness of the current Japanese leadership to strengthen existing relations with countries in the area which may provide reassurance in relation to the two main sources of threat perceived by Tokyo.
Their origins are easily identifiable: the People's Republic of China (PRC), responsible at the moment for the "Taiwanese crisis", with hundreds of air and sea crossings last year, and North Korea, the executor of a senseless policy of missile tests implemented by the unpredictable leader Kim Jong-un.
In fact, the security aspect has occupied a prominent place on the political agenda of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, head of government (as well as president of the highly influential Liberal Democratic Party) since October 2021, after having held the posts of Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister of Defence. To the electoral promise to guarantee «the total protection of all citizens», he intended to give concrete results, on the one hand through an impressive series of international contacts (19 visits abroad in just 18 months of mandate), on the other hand by promoting the revision of principles so deeply rooted in Japanese society as to seem untouchable. First among them, the reform of the «National Security Strategy», removing the hitherto sacrosanct principle of its exclusive application to the homeland, to authorize its use, if required by the circumstances, also outside national borders. A corresponding doubling (from 1 to 2%) of the share of GDP destined for defence needs was functional to these increased methods of employment and manoeuvring area. Also due to the fact that it has facilitated the supply of military equipment (but excluding weapon systems) to the Armed Forces of Kiev, the new strategy has definitively consolidated the relationship with the United States, which has come to guarantee the basic weapon of nuclear deterrence to its ally, in the event of a threat of aggression.
The late Prime Minister Shinzō Abe (inventor of so-called Abenomics, assassinated by a deranged man last year) is largely responsible for the particularly propitious phase experienced by the Japanese economy (the third largest in the world by size), with rates of growth, according to experts' forecasts, which are soon destined to surpass those of the United States and China, and with financial indexes unequalled in the last 30 years. If we consider the situation existing at the turn of the new millennium (anaemic growth, galloping inflation, depressed markets, modest impact on the volume of international transactions), one cannot fail to admire such rapid evolution. And, as in the case of any country, the consolidation of economic indicators and greater assertiveness in the political field are factors which, interacting with each other, create an important multiplier effect on the self-esteem of an entire society.
With an encouraging view of the future of the Land of the Rising Sun, the greatest unknown is, as mentioned above, represented by the PRC, the cumbersome neighbour with a population of almost 1.5 billion inhabitants, an area close to 10 million square kilometres and the world's second-largest GDP, 4 times higher than Japan's. After President Nixon's historic visit to Beijing (year of grace 1972) and the associated formalization of the so-called One China policy, it is clear that over the last few decades Europe and the United States have intensified the process of rapprochement with Beijing, driven both by the impressive economic, financial and commercial growth of the PRC, and by a general expectation of a gradual improvement in the standards of democracy and respect for human rights in force there.
This approach had, rather hastily, led the West to resize the geo-strategic importance of Japan within the geographical area to which it belonged. After some time, it must be recognized that in the special ranking of "trusted Allies", Tokyo has made an indisputable comeback, marked not only by the absence of internal political reforms, but by the very clear refusal of President Xi Jinping to condemn the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the senseless expansionist plans of the “new Tsar” as the US and the EU have done.
Consequently, the presence of Japan in military and security alliances, such as the Quad (with the United States, Australia and India) has provided an immediate advantage together with the Aukus which at the moment is composed of the United States, UK and Australia but which Tokyo is also planning to join.
In a realistic interpretation of his country's role and geographical location, the extreme political sensitivity of the "Chinese dossier" is perfectly understood by Prime Minister Kishida. After meeting Xi Jinping in November 2022 in Bangkok in the context of the APEC Summit (the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum), the mission to Beijing of Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoshimasa Hayashi, whose positions of moderation and balance towards the problematic neighbour are known, is expected shortly.
On the one hand, if the bilateral reasons for friction in the political field are numerous and significant (if we consider the status of Taiwan, the territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, the various positions taken which are judged to be detrimental to Chinese interests and the statement from the recent Japanese-led G7 summit), it is necessary to consider, on the other hand, the scope and importance of the economic interests at stake, well summarized by the presence of very important Japanese industrial facilities in Chinese territory and, more generally, by the fact that the two countries mutually occupy the first position in the ranking as importers and exporters.
While we wait to know the developments in the various "construction sites" which are currently under way and trust that exclusive recourse to the negotiating method will be made for their solution, one thing appears certain, beyond any reasonable doubt: in defining future international arrangements no country can afford to underestimate Japanese priorities, interests and points of view anymore, now that the Land of the Rising Sun is once more in the picture.
Reggente Marco Marsilli, Foundation President
