On November 5, an electoral body of over 200 million people will be called to the polls to elect the 47th President in the history of the United States of America.
At the time of publication of this article, that very important appointment will still be eight months away, but it seems clear from this point on – save for the most unlikely of cinema scripts - that the current occupant of the White House and his immediate predecessor in office will compete for the prestigious, four-year mandate.
The absolute lack of suspense shared by the only two parties, the Democratic and the Republican, capable of producing "electable" candidates on a national scale, largely derives from the unequivocal outcome of the so-called "primaries", that is to say local pre -consultations which, although in different ways, characterize all the states of the Union. Those that have taken place so far have in fact been transformed, within their respective parties, into indisputable affirmations for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, prompting a good number of challengers to withdraw from campaigns that are as expensive as they are clearly destined for failure.
Custom has it that, being able to count on the "security of position" in the White House and the obvious support of the leaders of his own party, the President-in-Office is decidedly less exposed to the danger of internal competition.
Where this type of competition usually manifests itself most prominently is in the opposition, since - at least in theory - the various challengers start (or should start) from positions of substantial equality. In fact, the initial presence among the "likely to be elected" of two qualified alternatives to Donald Trump, namely the Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis and the former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, suggested, as with the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in mid-July, the possibility of a less obvious final designation. But, as mentioned above, the results of the primaries, although partial, ended up leaving their mark, prompting the former to discreetly withdraw and the latter to throw in the towel after the disappointing results of the "Super Tuesday" at the beginning of March.
Returning to the question of lack of suspense that appears to characterize the November elections, it seems legitimate to ask why, in the richest, most powerful, economically dynamic and technologically advanced country on the planet, such a fundamental choice, also from the point of view of future international stability, sees two protagonists who are decidedly far from the prestige and credibility that should mark the profile of George Washington's 46th successor. In addition to various charges for cases of corruption, withholding and concealing documents as well as sexual harassment, Trump is in fact weighed down by the indisputable connivances he abetted in January 2021 with the attackers of Capitol Hill, historically the most serious internal threat ever brought to American democracy. Connivances so serious as to prompt the Courts of a number of States of the Federation to declare ineligibility (these sentences were, however, very recently "overturned" by the Supreme Court).
On the other hand, if Biden's personal ethics appear objectively immune from substantial criticism (this positive opinion does not extend to members of his immediate family), it is above all his evident senility that causes widespread concern. Exemplified in the blunt definition by the Special Counsel Robert Hur («an elderly man with good intentions and a poor memory») as well as in the more popular label of ‘sleepy Joe’, it justifies the emergence of well-founded doubts regarding the full possession of those qualities of coherence, lucidity and intellectual responsiveness which are indispensable in fulfilling the most important and delicate government task in the world.
In an attempt to respond to any queries, in Trump's case, aside from all other considerations, the belief prevails that for the Grand Old Party (as well as for the powerful lobbies that support and finance it) he still represents the Republican exponent most suited to attracting the votes of the US electorate to the party. In fact, it is important to remember that on November 5, apart from the indirect election of the new President, the entire Congress (currently with a Republican majority) will have to be reaffirmed as will the Senate (controlled instead by the Democrats) for a third of its composition.
In Biden's case, the matter is more complex. His victorious election in 2020 was in fact seen by many of his supporters as the necessary "bridge" on the path to a forthcoming, clear generational change by passing the baton to Kamala Harris, to favour entry into the White House, 4 years later, of a brilliant, competent and "young" sixty-year-old. With the project left on paper - for reasons related to the lack of charisma and consequent reduction in the popularity of the current Vice President - the Democrats were left with no other solution, to use an irreverent but effective formula, thus resorting to "tried and trusted".
In view of the finish line of 5 November, the battle promises to be close and, at least at this stage, impossible to predict, given that the discernible advantage which, according to the majority of surveys, Trump currently boasts (48% compared to 43 % according to the «New York Times») hardly seems insurmountable.
As has consistently happened in US elections, it will not be so much international issues (however wide the media "exposure" of them may be) that will orient the voters' response in one way or another, but rather internal matters. We will return to the former in subsequent comments, limiting ourselves here to highlighting how, in the event of Trump's affirmation, American support for the government of Ukraine, practically unlimited from February 24, 2022 to today, would undergo forms of attenuation. His recent, provocative statements on the role of NATO and the prolonged silence following the "state murder" of Aleksei Navalny bear witness to this.
Regarding the latter, the areas of civil rights, social security, greater distribution of welfare and climate change will constitute the priorities of the current President’s campaign. The challenger will oppose these with reduction of taxes, the lesser presence of the State in the economy, the continuing freedom in the sale of weapons and greater severity in the repression of abortion and "unconventional" social behaviour.
That said, in the unanimous assessment of political circles and the media, the "mother of all electoral battles" will essentially boil down to the phenomenon of immigration and its regulation. According to official data, over 5 million people have crossed the country's southern border, mostly clandestinely, during the Biden presidency. This is a flow that Democrats and Republicans, for once in agreement, consider unsustainable in the future, although they radically diverge on the most suitable solutions to effectively deal with it. These are extraordinarily relevant decisions, as they are destined to affirm Joe Biden's reconfirmation in the White House or Donald Trump's return to the Oval Office in full sail, thus reinforcing the doubts and uncertainties even across the Atlantic that, in the same sphere, characterize the basic choices of almost all governments of the Old Continent.
Reggente Marco Marsilli, Foundation President
